Networks, innovation, and strategy: preparing for the next phase of global trade
By Lorenzo Bona
Recent analyses (for example, “Global trade will continue, but will become more complex,” The Economist, November 12, 2025) suggest that global trade proved unexpectedly resilient in 2025 despite new U.S. tariff schemes, which weakened traditional global trade frameworks and fueled some levels of protectionism.
For example, following the article, exporters – especially in China – redirected goods to Europe, other Asian markets, Africa, and other regions, keeping trade volumes growing even as traditional routes to the U.S. narrowed. Vietnam shifted exports to Europe, India expanded shipments to the Gulf, Brazil increased beef exports to China, and the EU intensified its search for deals with South American countries.
What appeared to be a major rupture instead confirmed how deeply economic activity is embedded in networks that extend beyond formal institutions. Adaptability, however, has limits, as not all products or sectors can easily shift markets.
At the same time, the American economy demonstrated greater resilience than many expected.
Many of these dynamics can perhaps be understood through some ideas expressed by American sociologist Mark Granovetter, in an influential article he wrote entitled “The Strength of Weak Ties”, which is relevant for innovation, firm behavior, and broader socio-economic phenomena
The article, which views socio-economic interactions as unfolding within networks of relationships varying in strength, frequency, and trust, highlights that weak and strong ties play distinct roles. Strong ties involve close, frequent, trust-based interactions, whereas weak ties link individuals through more distant relations that nonetheless act as bridges to new information and opportunities.
Accordingly:
(a) weak ties connect actors to new information and opportunities, in ways that ultimately tend to promote innovation;
(b) broader, looser networks spread innovation and economic action more efficiently;
(c) networks rich in weak ties provide diverse knowledge, enhancing adaptability.
In many aspects, the observed global rerouting appears to mirror the idea that firms – like many other social actors – tend to operate within dense social and economic networks rather than as isolated entities.
In this light, it appears plausible that:
• when formal trade rules were disrupted, companies relied on cross-border relationships, trust-based ties, and informal channels to identify alternative buyers and suppliers;
• these networks enabled rapid shifts in logistics, contract negotiations, and shock absorption.
The experiences of economies like Vietnam, India, and the EU seem to illustrate well how strategic ties facilitated new trade opportunities and helped stabilize supply flows. Even without strong global governance, these embedded networks may appear as highly adaptive socio-economic structures that allowed trade to keep moving.
In other words, Granovetter’s insights seem a powerful tool to help explain, at least in part, why the trading order did not collapse: relational networks enabled new solutions, information sharing, and reconfigured trade routes.
What does this suggest for business strategy?
Prioritize internationalization to avoid over-dependence on a single region. Strong ties in core markets matter, but weak ties often open access to new opportunities in markets where a firm is not yet deeply embedded.
Focus on and/or monitor the American economy, given its scale and demonstrated outstanding resilience.
Cultivate diverse networks, flexible supply chains, and multiple regional relationships to reinforce the web of weak and strong ties that support innovation and help firms navigate an increasingly fragmented global landscape.